Thursday, May 28, 2020
Disbanding the United States Air Force
The idea of rolling the United States Air Force into other services is not a new. Let us look at some of the issues and opportunities that this has to offer.
Creating the United States Air Force (USAF) in 1947 was the right idea at the right time. Military aviation technology concepts were moving fast. It offered a focus on learning new technologies in aviation and space.
Today, after the end of the Cold War, USAF no longer has a large number of creative aerospace engineers working for it and is hardly pushing any world beating technology of its own initiative.
The USAF refuses to replace old aircraft at any useful pace. The new aircraft being purchased are expensive to own and operate, with no credible combat capability; including: no war attrition tolerance.
USAF tanker and airlift fleets are a mess. There is no replacement for the C-5 or C-17. Light airlift was killed.
The KC-46, a sick joke. For over 20 years, USAF is not capable of fielding a new aerial refueling tanker.
USAF flag leadership warm chairs with no value to the defense of the nation. All of the problems mentioned are a short list.
How would this merge to the other services (mostly the Army) happen?
1. Airlift-Tanker.
A replacement of the C-5 needs to happen as a priority. The C-5M upgrade did not solve all C-5 ageing aircraft issues.
Until then, used 747-400s of which there are many, could be converted into cargo/passenger/tankers. This would help fill in theater-airlift gaps.
C-17s are an important capability. Unfortunately, early production jets are getting old. The C-17 is no longer in production. It has now joined the ageing aircraft club.
This replacement effort should be a priority.
The A-400M should be purchased as an additional airlift resource. When you look at the specifications of this aircraft it is neither fish, nor fowl. Yet, if the C-17 replacement stalls, medium tactical airlift will need help. This doesn’t solve the C-17 age issue but reduces the pain.
C-130Js should never be allowed to end production.
C-27s should used to supplement our airlift capability.
All of the airlift assets mentioned can be put into the Army Reserve and National Guard.
The American military aerial refueling capability is such a mess that drastic action will have to be taken. It should no longer be considered a one-service dominant capability.
The KC-46 program has failed. As the winning vendor, it should be removed and replaced with the runner up: the Northrop/Airbus KC-30. The KC-30 is in service with other nations and works well.
Here the Navy can help. KC-30s should be assigned as one squadron per numbered fleet. Navy reserve where practical.
U.S. Army squadrons would also be created as needed. Army Reserve and National Guard where practical.
Where practical, contractors can do tanker operations for the U.S. military for the United States, U.S. territories and the Canada region. Also: aircraft deliveries overseas. No direct war support with contractors. This will happen with former USAF KC-135s until the market adapts other platforms.
KC-135s should be retired as fast as possible. Given the state of the tanker mess, this may take many years.
Intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (IRS). This capability in all platforms--air breathing fixed wing and space--can be operated successfully by the U.S. Army.
2. Nuclear deterrent.
Inter-continental ballistic missiles (ICBM) can be managed by the U.S. Army.
The mission of manned long-range, nuclear strike ends.
3. Long-range bombers.
The B-2 and B-1 will be retired. Both of these reside on the silly premise that these aircraft can penetrate a modern air defense system. Along with that: no future B-21 budget raider.
The B-52 will remain. It is a successful idea and doesn’t depend on penetrating a modern air defense system to be useful. Of the three long-range bombers, it has the best mission capability rates. A replacement with similar (not gold-plated) capability should be a priority.
4. Tactical aircraft.
Since there will be no USAF, there is no requirement to take responsibility of stupid decisions made by the service.
The F-35 USAF requirement will end. It eats too much national treasure for very little return in combat capability.
F-16 aircraft should be put into the 20 or so national air sovereignty locations throughout the U.S. as a separate command or numbered Army Air Force or whatever the leadership decides to call it. Much like the old USAF Air Defense Command (ADC). This is important for the purpose of focusing on the work at hand that is also shared with our Canadian allies. That is, to intercept unknown aircraft close to our national border. This should be a blended unit with active duty Army and Army Reserve as an important national defense effort; which does not require National Guard involvement. Many F-16s will be retired from this reorganization, however, the current low rate of F-16 production should continue to replace old F-16s.
The Zamboni mission. This is slang sometimes heard in the USAF to describe the deployed air domination mission of F-15C/D aircraft. They prepare the ice so the real mission of war winning by other tactical aircraft can happen. After most war efforts, they don’t do very much. Since the F-22 can do deep strike/interdiction, it doesn’t always fall into this category.
All F-15C/Ds go away. All F-15Es and new F-15s assist the F-22 in clearing air threats the first nights of a war.
A priority replacement project has to happen to solve the F-22 aircraft ageing issues. This process is married to new F-15 aircraft capability.
Interdiction and close air support. The F-15E and new F-15 builds will be the primary interdiction aircraft. Other aircraft like the B-52 and Navy aircraft will assist as needed.
A side note on the threat. As Bill Sweetman pointed out years ago, no flag-level leadership was able to explain to him in what situation we would deploy land forces were we did not have complete control of the air and/or anti-access threat.
That should stand as policy. If we don’t have control of the anti-access threat, ground troops will die. We should never put our land forces into such a situation.
Insisting that the interdiction and close air support mission should be performed by some kind of gold-plated unreliable, expensive to own and operate stealth aircraft should be considered lunacy.
Close air support: A-10, Tucano, Apache, AC-130. Interdiction aircraft and multi-service aircraft where practical.
The Future.
All that I have suggested falls into the category of: now I have done my duty as an over-stressed taxpayer.
It should not be dismissed as impossible. Since the end of the Cold War, the United States Air Force has been given several come-to-Jesus opportunities to solve its many problems. Each time they have failed.
Now is the time to thank that institutional idea for its service, and, end it.
||======================||
Contact:
EP Actual on Twitter
Wednesday, May 20, 2020
USAF aircraft mission capability rates for 2019
We have been here before; aging aircraft and underwhelming maintenance management results for the United States Air Force (USAF).
This is the responsibility of flag-level leadership.
Not much has been done to fix the problem except maybe for a few aircraft like the F-15 or F-16. And, even that isn't great.
USAF has a long history of under-funding aircraft maintenance. For instance, in the early 2000's B-1 bombers had a mission capability (MC-rate) of around 50 percent.
It turned out, USAF was under funding that activity at around, 50 percent.
The C-5 is a sad story. It is a huge roll-on/roll-off cargo aircraft that is old, and needed, yet, USAF refuses to have a replacement fielded.
They modified some of the fleet to the C-5M standard long ago; new engines and avionics, but this only brought MC rates up 13 or so percent. And, this modification did not (and was not designed to) address all C-5 maintenance issues.
The C-17 is now getting old. Production for this aircraft should never have stopped. It, like the F-16, was sold to USAF as not needing 3-level maintenance.
3-level maintenance is: flight line maintenance, phased and isochronic maintenance in a dedicated hanger at the unit level, and finally (in the case of the F-15 and others) the aircraft goes to a dedicated depot every 5-7 years for an extensive rebuild. The depot for the C-5, C-17, C-130 and F-15 is at Robins Air Force Base, Georgia.
Yes, C-17. After realizing the sales pitch was nonsense, it joined the F-16 as a 3-level maintenance aircraft.
Years later, the F-35 was sold to the USAF as not needing 3-level depot maintenance. Today... because of the mush of different sub-variant blocks and other design errors, it is, a 3-level maintenance jet.
To be fair, when the program was started, they looked at various maintenance activities to eliminate. The landing gear might be more expensive and not last as long due to corrosion, but they did eliminate a really nasty process of not having to remove and re-add chromium coating as a depot activity.
With all of its faults, it costs anywhere between $44,000 and up per flight hour. The gun doesn't work and it has many on-going problems.
In the case of Eglin Air Force Base, Florida--the schoolhouse for USAF F-35 pilots--they are stuck with older pre-Block3F aircraft that have training incompatibility issues as well as poor MC-rates. One option is to replace those aircraft with new ones. The F-35 program has been in low rate initial production (LRIP) since 2007. And, is suffering aging aircraft issues. Another first for "5th-Generation" aircraft.
Lessons that were learned, have to be relearned. No aircraft should be allowed into service without a solid 3-level maintenance plan.
The F-22 has airframe fatigue issues and gets "dog-year" maintenance credits if it is operated in a dry environment.
With no active production line. It will suffer more.
As a legacy of its design, the vertical take-off and landing, special ops, CV-22, will never enjoy high, MC-rates.
As a legacy of its design, the vertical take-off and landing, special ops, CV-22, will never enjoy high, MC-rates.
A variety of people inside and outside the USAF did their part to warn of these problems.
Today, the USAF still has aircraft maintenance issues with hair on it, mostly because of inaction from flag-level leadership.
Mission System | 2019 Mission Capable Rate |
A-10C | 71.2% |
AC-130J | 86.12% |
AC-130U | 85.62% |
AC-130W | 80.22% |
AT-38B | 74.62% |
B-1B | 46.42% |
B-2A | 60.47% |
B-52H | 65.73% |
C-12C | 99.05% |
C-12D | 100% |
C-12F | 92.4% |
C-12J | 100% |
C-130H | 65.51% |
C-130J | 77.02% |
C-17A | 82.23% |
C-21A | 100% |
C-32A | 90.24% |
C-37A | 93.85% |
C-37B | 86.47% |
C-40B | 89.48% |
C-40C | 85.9% |
C-5M | 63.16% |
CV-22B | 53.45% |
E-3B | 74.41% |
E-3C | 73.19% |
E-3G | 74.36% |
E-4B | 64.75% |
E-8C | 67.36% |
EC-130H | 73.19% |
EC-130J | 57.38% |
F-15C | 70.05% |
F-15D | 72.45% |
F-15E | 71.29% |
F-16C | 72.97% |
F-16D | 70.37% |
F-22A | 50.57% |
F-35A | 61.6% |
HC-130J | 79.81% |
HC-130N | 68.13% |
HC-130P | 61.52% |
HH-60G | 66.20% |
KC-10A | 79.37% |
KC-135R | 72.5% |
KC-135T | 71.11% |
KC-46A | 63.11% |
LC-130H | 40.28% |
MC-12W | 100% |
MC-130H | 68.65% |
MC-130J | 77.54% |
MC-130P | 28.07% |
MQ-1B | 99.52% |
MQ-9A | 89.32% |
OC-135B | 82.46% |
RC-135S | 90.39% |
RC-135U | 91.07% |
RC-135V | 74.1% |
RC-135W | 69.49% |
RQ-4B | 75.75% |
T-1A | 60.51% |
T-38A | 74.48% |
T-38C | 63.05% |
T-6A | 63.29% |
TC-130H | 26.32% |
TC-135W | 84.8% |
TE-8A | 73.42% |
TH-1H | 74.63% |
TU-2S | 74.96% |
U-2S | 78.39% |
UH-1N | 82.42% |
VC-25A | 92.86% |
WC-130J | 56.2% |
WC-135C | 63.05% |
WC-135W | 80.14% |
Photo: Wikipedia
Contact:
EP Actual on Twitter
Monday, May 18, 2020
RAAF F-18F Super Hornet Value
Defence may have some work to do on their message in regard to how much it costs to fly military aircraft. That is if anyone actually cared other than a few people.
In a previous post, I pointed out cost per flying hour for some of these aircraft for the 2018-2019 budget year.
Some were similar to what was observed for years. Some were a bit wild.
In the budget it mentioned that $436M was budgeted for F-18F Super Hornet sustainment. Flying hours done in that year showed up in the next budget year. 3700 flying hours. With, a cost per flying hour of $117,837.
This article is about 10 years of F-18F Super Hornet service with the RAAF. It mentions the award of a 4 year, $280M contract for what appear to be avionics support for both the F-18F and the EA-18G.
"Today all 24 aircraft are still operational, flown by 1 Sqn and supported by an Air Force/Industry partnership under the Air Combat Electronic Attack Sustainment Program (ACEASP), which also supports the Growler fleet. The team consists of Boeing Defence Australia (which replaced Boeing in July 2016) as the prime contractor, together with sub-contractors Raytheon Australia, Northrop Grumman Australia, Airspeed, Pacific Aerospace Consulting and Martin Baker Australia.
In March, the ACEASP was awarded a four-year, $280 million, sustainment contract extension until 2025. Life of type for the Super Hornet is currently 2030 for the Super Hornet and 2035 for the Growler."
Budget figures from years ago show that the F-18F Super Hornet was about $24,000--$26,000 cost per flight hour.
There is a lot of money being spent on the the F-18F and EA-F-18G. Finding the cost per flying hour from public documents, will be difficult.
photo: Defence
||======================||
Contact:
EP Actual on Twitter
Where to go with the Australian variant of the M-1 tank?
Where to go with the Australian variant of the M-1 tank?
The M-1 tank in Australian service has been an underwhelming capability for the money spent.
In 2004, Australia decided to take on 59 M-1 tanks from the U.S., with no competitive tender process. Australian M-1s are interesting in that they were bought as a then-United States Marine Corps specification without the depleted uranium armor.
U.S. was using it, it must be good.
Lazy.
Here are some of the issues with the M-1 tank.
It is too heavy to use for real military operations. Especially in our region of interest.
Operational momentum is the ability to sustain an offensive. In U.S. Army service during Desert Storm, the M-1s were stalled waiting on more fuel, while Iraqi Republican Guard formations got away.
The turbine engine in the M-1 tank provides superior torque/power advantages compared to conventional engines in other tanks. The fuel consumption of the M-1 tank is horrific compared to its peers.
It consumes twice as much fuel during cruising compared to conventional tanks. And, this is when it is at its best possible performance. Turbines burn a lot of fuel just by idling: 2.5 times compared to conventional tanks. Another figure is six time or more. (Note: an upgrade of putting in an auxiliary power unit that can run all systems, helps this.)
Every tank can go as far as its fuel trucks. The M-1 tank, significantly less so.
The M-1 tank has more breakdowns and readiness problems compared to conventional tanks.
So, weight, reliability and fuel consumption mean that the M-1 has poor operational momentum. The extreme weight, limits the ground it can travel on: including roads and bridges.
Overly heavy tanks are more difficult to move by boat, ship, rail and air.
Survivability of the tank is good, but today, not spectacular compared to other tanks because anti-tank weapons keep improving. Survivabilty has to be balanced. It is a dangerous job and even in victory, tanks will be lost.
Increasing the survivability of the M-1 with more modifications increased its weight--8-10 tons depending on the upgrade--thus lowering its mobility over ground and reducing its operational momentum even more with increased fuel consumption.
How useful is an unreliable, upgraded 71-73 ton M-1 which in turn is a logistical burden in the operational area?
Australian M-1s suffer even more sustainment issues than the U.S. Army.
"Army Head of Modernisation and Strategic Planning Major General Gus McLachlan recently hosted personnel from the US Army’s Tank and Automotive Command (TACOM) in Michigan to investigate what he describes as ‘very significant and reliability issues’ with the Abrams fleet in Australia.
“At the end of it the Americans back-briefed me, saying we are using our tanks at 10 times the rate of a similar American unit and also, we use them on terrain that our soldiers would never contemplate crossing,” he told delegates at the SimTecT 2016 conference in Melbourne recently.
A further difference between the two Abrams operators is that the Australian Army runs the AGT1500 engine on diesel, where US forces use Aviation Turbine (AVTUR) fuel."
Not for lack of trying, Australian Defence reduced M-1 tank engine repair costs by converting to in-country work. Previously M-1 tank engines had to be shipped off for refurbishment in the U.S. at a cost of $500,000 each.
What will replace the M-1?
M-1 tanks and their engine have not been produced new for many years. Each U.S. sale of an M-1 to allies or the U.S. military means that they take an old M-1 out of dry storage and do a complete overhaul: rebuilding it with some improvements. Nothing about the M-1 hull and the engine are new.
M-1 electronics and computers systems in refurbished newer variants are excellent.
The M-1A3 concept offers some hope. It is a proper trucker motor and not a problem turbine. This variant is still that: a concept.
Main battle tanks are still useful. They are the bully that can help infantry win and save lives.
What Australia needs is a tank with the lowest possible weight. Even a 105mm main gun would be sufficient. Destroying enemy tanks is not always a tank to tank issue. Our tank use should be concerned with direct infantry support.
The Korean K-1 (no longer made) ticks a lot of boxes when looking at practical applications of an infantry support tank. It is 51 tons, has a conventional power system, and is good enough.
The French LeClerc busts 50 tons but is still much lighter than any M-1A2 or M-1A3 refurbishment. Tanks like the LeClerc reduce some of the weight by reducing a crew-person. The main-gun has an auto-loader.
Whatever Australia decides should replace the M-1, it should not be another M-1. Recently the United States Marine Corps removed M-1 tanks from their amphibious units. I suspect in part that was due to the logistical support needed to float and move such pigs.
The Australian Army wants an M-1 replacement by 2035.
Further M-1 reading:
The REAL M1 Abrams! Chapter 1: Overview
The REAL M1 Abrams! Chapter 2: Mobility (Part 1/4)
The REAL M1 Abrams! Chapter 2: Mobility (Part 2/4)
The REAL M1 Abrams! Chapter 2: Mobility (Part 3/4)
The REAL M1 Abrams! Chapter 2: Mobility (Part 4/4)
The REAL M1 Abrams! Chapter 3: Firepower (Part 1 of 6)
The REAL M1 Abrams! Chapter 3: Firepower (Part 2 of 6)
The REAL M1 Abrams! Chapter 3: Firepower (Part 3 of 6)
The REAL M1 Abrams! Chapter 3: Firepower (Part 4 of 6)
The REAL M1 Abrams! Chapter 3: Firepower (Part 5 of 6)
The REAL M1 Abrams! Chapter 3: Firepower (Part 6 of 6)
The REAL M1 Abrams! Chapter 4: Protection (Part 1 of 5)
The REAL M1 Abrams! Chapter 4: Protection (Part 2 of 5)
The REAL M1 Abrams! Chapter 4: Protection (Part 3 of 5)
The REAL M1 Abrams! Chapter 4: Protection (Part 4 of 5)
The REAL M1 Abrams! Chapter 4: Protection (Part 5 of 5)
The REAL M1 Abrams! Chapter 5: Surprise (Part 1 of 5)
The REAL M1 Abrams! Chapter 5: Surprise (Part 2 of 5)
The REAL M1 Abrams! Chapter 5: Surprise (Part 3 of 5)
The REAL M1 Abrams! Chapter 5: Surprise (Part 4/5)
The REAL M1 Abrams! Chapter 5: Surprise (Part 5/5)
The REAL M1 Abrams! Chapter 6: Infantry Support... or not? (Part 1/3)
The REAL M1 Abrams! Chapter 6: Infantry Support... or not? (Part 2/3)
The REAL M1 Abrams! Chapter 6: Infantry Support... or not? (Part 3/3)
The REAL M1 Abrams! Chapter 7: Logistics (Part 1/9)
The REAL M1 Abrams! Chapter 7: Logistics (Part 2/9)
The REAL M1 Abrams! Chapter 7: Logistics (Part 3/9)
The REAL M1 Abrams! Chapter 7: Logistics (Part 4/9)
The REAL M1 Abrams! Chapter 7: Logistics (Part 5/9)
The REAL M1 Abrams! Chapter 7: Logistics (Part 6/9)
The REAL M1 Abrams! Chapter 7: Logistics (Part 7/9)
The REAL M1 Abrams! Chapter 7: Logistics (Part 8/9)
The REAL M1 Abrams! Chapter 7: Logistics (Part 9/9)
The REAL M1 Abrams! Chapter 8: Vaporware (Part 1 of 4)
The REAL M1 Abrams! Chapter 8: Vaporware (Part 2 of 4)
The REAL M1 Abrams! Chapter 8: Vaporware (Part 3 of 4)
The REAL M1 Abrams! Chapter 8: Vaporware (Part 4 of 4)
The REAL M1 Abrams! Chapter 9: Crew Hazards (Part 1 of 6)
The REAL M1 Abrams! Chapter 9: Crew Hazards (Part 2 of 6)
The REAL M1 Abrams! Chapter 9: Crew Hazards (Part 3 of 6)
The REAL M1 Abrams! Chapter 9: Crew Hazards (Part 4 of 6)
The REAL M1 Abrams! Chapter 9: Crew Hazards (Part 5 of 6)
The REAL M1 Abrams! Chapter 9: Crew Hazards (Part 6 of 6)
The REAL M1 Abrams!, Chapter 10: Fun M1 Facts (Part 1 of 10)
The REAL M1 Abrams!, Chapter 10: Fun M1 Facts (Part 2 of 10)
The REAL M1 Abrams!, Chapter 10: Fun M1 Facts (Part 3 of 10)
The REAL M1 Abrams!, Chapter 10: Fun M1 Facts (Part 4 of 10)
The REAL M1 Abrams!, Chapter 10: Fun M1 Facts (Part 5 of 10)
The REAL M1 Abrams!, Chapter 10: Fun M1 Facts (Part 6 of 10)
The REAL M1 Abrams!, Chapter 10: Fun M1 Facts (Part 7 of 10)
The REAL M1 Abrams!, Chapter 10: Fun M1 Facts (Part 8 of 10)
The REAL M1 Abrams!, Chapter 10: Fun M1 Facts (Part 9 of 10)
The REAL M1 Abrams!, Chapter 10: Fun M1 Facts (Part 10 of 10)
The REAL M1 Abrams! Chapter 11: Combat Record (Part 1 of 2)
The REAL M1 Abrams! Chapter 11: Combat Record (Part 2 of 2)
The REAL M1 Abrams! Chapter 12: The Raw Numbers, Part 1 of 3
The REAL M1 Abrams! Chapter 12: The Raw Numbers, Part 2 of 3
The REAL M1 Abrams! Chapter 12: The Raw Numbers, Part 3 of 3
||======================||
Contact:
EP Actual on Twitter
Thursday, May 14, 2020
Tongo Tongo blame game
U.S. Green Berets, training Niger armed forces. March 2017 (DOD photo)
It happened in an operational environment where the U.S. Africa Command thought things were manageable.
It brings questions: what were U.S. troops doing there? After the ambush, some decision makers and policy people in D.C. were unaware of the activity. Either through lack of listening to briefs or other forms of ignorance.
The troops were there in a training and advisory role. Green Berets have an extensive amount of experience in counter insurgency work and training local troops to put up the effort. This level of skill can't be over-stated. (YouTube video, 2 hours 32 minutes, worth watching. It gives a good scope on Green Beret skill-sets.)
How do the Green Berets train foreign troops? Many times the home troop has low skill and or intelligence. It is done by recruiting and vetting locals, getting a baseline of soldering skills into the trainees. Culling those who can't hack it. Then taking the remainder and teaching them basic combat tactics and leadership. Culling more as needed, then the last part, which is more risk to the Green Berets, taking them out on real ops. Baby-steps first, then hopefully getting the home troops up to speed to where they can operate with minimal Green Beret supervision.
In the case of the Tongo Tongo Ambush, 35 Niger troops, 10 U.S. soldiers and 1 intel contractor which made up a patrol of 8 vehicles were operating very near the Mali border. The threat were up to 100 fighters that used the Tongo Tongo area as a base to support insurgent operations in Mali.
Stories of the event are different depending on the source.
-U.S. and Nigerien sources differ on the nature of the fatal mission of Oct 4. Nigeriens say it was to go after Chefou; U.S. officials say it was reconnaissance mission.-
and...
-"The mission was conducted where we thought contact [with enemy] was unlikely," McKenzie said, adding, "I don't want to paint it as friendly territory."-
and...
-"A group of 12 members of a U.S. Special Operations Task Force accompanied 30 Nigerien forces on a reconnaissance mission from the capital, Niamey, to an area near the village of Tongo Tongo.
Members of the team had just completed a meeting with local leaders and were walking back to their vehicles when they were attacked, U.S. officials told VOA.
The soldiers said the meeting ran late, and some suspected the villagers were intentionally delaying their departure, one of the officials said."-
and...or...
-"Mountari said the team of 12 U.S. Special Forces soldiers and 30 Nigerien troops had been "right up to the Mali border and had neutralized some bandits" just before the ambush took place."-
And this is how Niger saw the U.S. relationship.
-"However, Mountari was clear he saw them as close partners.
"The Americans are not just exchanging information with us. They are waging war when necessary," he said.
"We are working hand in hand. The clear proof is that the Americans and Nigeriens fell on the battlefield for the peace and security of our country."-
This will go down in history as another special forces lesson.
Monday morning quarterbacking. The ambush was a complete surprise. The team did not have awareness of their surroundings. Things happened quickly and the team fell apart under overwhelming firepower. Insurgents used effective volume of fire and fire and movement.
There were no armed UAVs overhead.
Things happened so quickly that, even without the communications problems, emergency response fixed wing air from the south would not get there in time even if they got the call. Later when French fighter aircraft arrived overhead to support the recovery effort, they were unable to identify friend from foe.
French air assets to the south in Niamey.
US unarmed UAV assets way off to the east in Agadez.
It may also be another lesson in the kind of vehicles used for this type of operation. The U.S. has been near AK, PKM, heavy machine-gun and RPG threats for 60 years.
No place for soft vehicles. Even the lackluster Stryker can get in a bad way if the dirt insurgent has armor-piercing ammo for their PKM.
Some kind of light tank may help?
I don't see these kind of operations stopping. No matter what leadership is in D.C.
This is a YouTube summary of the ambush. Warning: it is hard to watch.
Tuesday, May 12, 2020
Our Unsatisfactory U.S. Navy Force Structure
It is easy to sit in a chair and do a hack and slash of the U.S. Navy and play make believe about what fleet numbers should look like. Many have done it in the past. Many will do it in the future.
But I want to still have a Navy as opposed to one in constant budget stress and low capability.
Under severe budget stress, and even more with the fallout of the virus, the U.S. military is going to have unfortunate budget solutions forced on it. Many because the establishment of 900-plus flag-ranks, did not plan for the future.
Let us also look at how we would maintain sea control and do deep strike. Deep strike is a partnership with USAF. Tomahawk Block IV, JASSM, LRASSM. Anything else risks aircrew paraded on the news. Stealth or no stealth.
In the 1990's, the old JAST program (pre-Joint Strike Fighter): nowhere in the definition was the word "aircraft": Joint Advanced Strike Technology. One of the later bosses scratched out the word "advanced" and replaced it with "affordable".
This list is not all inclusive. But here are some important highlights.
The Virginia-class submarine, which is still in production, is a frightfully powerful sea control and deep strike weapon.
The U.S. Navy is buying a new frigate class. This will help keep good naval flag-waving and affordable patrol.
The Burke-class destroyer is still in production. It, along with the Virginia, provide many strike missile tubes.
Get rid of all littoral combat ships (LCS) and Tico cruisers. The later means eliminating an anti-ballistic missile capability of dubious worth.
Get rid of the nuke carriers. The air wing road map for the future is weak and only puts them at risk. There is no wonder fleet aircraft on the horizon to change this. This is a multi-billion dollar high-risk fantasy and not an exercise in pretty, futuristic, click-bait, concept artwork.
Carrier work will assume that it is too risky to face major threats. Just like the big carriers now.
Where we need a portable airfield, more times than not it is for vertical lift aircraft in locations that are already sanitized. This can be Navy, Marines or even... Army aircraft.
21 America-class (not the later Bougainville variant) should be good enough. Equipped today with a handful of F-35Bs, MV-22 and various helicopters. Or, whatever VTOL, STOVL you wish for the future.
Rule of three. 7 in refurbishment after deployment. 7 working up. 7 deployed.
All of this will help us have an affordable, powerful Navy. Including one that is war-attrition tolerant. The ship and submarine programs mentioned, should never go out of production.
There you have it. I have fulfilled my right as an over-stressed taxpayer.
(photo: Wikipedia)
Monday, May 11, 2020
ADF cost per flying hour
This is the Australian Defence Force aircraft cost per flying hour for the 2018-2019 budget year. Not every aircraft is shown.
The numbers are found by looking at the 2019-2020 budget which shows flying hours for each aircraft in the previous budget year.
Then you go to the 2018-2019 budget and look at the sustainment dollars budgeted for that aircraft type.
From that you can get a cost per flying hour.
A lot of these platforms are high. The helicopter numbers and Super Hornet are hard to digest. There may be some efficiency at the squadron level that is missing out.
C-130J, KC-130 and C-17 are good considering that we are looking at Australian dollars and exchange rates.
I am curious how much of the F-18F Super Hornet depends on shipping and receiving parts from overseas. Example: some years ago, Australia was able to save big money with M-1 tank sustainment by doing engine refurbishment in country and not sending the work off to the U.S.
EA-18G and F-35 are putting in some flying hours but sustainment is hidden in the project overall spend, or, I just was unable to find it in the budget. One would think some of the F-18F resources are shared with the EA-18G. This is not shown in the budget.
This makes the case for a review of the usefulness of some of our helicopters.
It also makes the case for having one kind of tactical fighter bomber. Not three. If the troubled F-35 is really the way to go, we need to park the Super Hornets (F and G) as soon as possible.
Of course the old F-18s are going away.
Aircraft / Cost per flying hour in thousands of dollars.
MH-60R / 20101
ARH Tiger / 27547
MRH90 / 27758
C-130J / 14285
C-17 / 19000
C-27 / 21250
KC-30A / 15900
P-8A / 25600
E-7A / 68823
F-18A-B / 18139
F-18F / 117837
Hawk / 20769
photo: Wikipedia
||======================||
Contact:
EP Actual on Twitter
Sunday, May 10, 2020
Doom and Gloom or, a New Hope?
The road map that is the RAAF has been a tragedy for 20 years.
The 1990s was the decade where highly skilled technical experts in Defence were weeded out and replaced with unskilled generalist managers. What is a generalist manager?
Expert: "This product is too hot to use safely in the kitchen."
Industry representative: "This product met all of our specifications."
Generalist Manager: "The truth must be somewhere in between."
Joey burns his hand off.
This is normalization of deviance behavior. Which can occur when performance or specification goals are not properly tested.
This is also the same behavior that killed two space shuttle crews.
This behavior has been the norm in the entrenched defence bureaucracy for 20 years. It has caused fraud, waste and abuse to the tune of billions of dollars for a variety of poor weapon systems.
Let us review that which is a pure debacle: the replacement of our old fighter-bomber aircraft.
In 1991, the U.S.Navy A-12 program was cancelled. It was to be the ultimate strike aircraft off of aircraft carrier decks for the future. It would replace the A-6 bomber.
"The A-12 I did terminate. It was not an easy decision to make because it's an important requirement that we're trying to fulfill. But no one could tell me how much the program was going to cost, even just through the full scale development phase, or when it would be available. And data that had been presented at one point a few months ago turned out to be invalid and inaccurate."Secretary of Defense Dick Cheney, 1991
Badly bruised and having to replace old aircraft on the carrier deck, the Navy dusted off a plan from McDonnell Douglas that they had previously rejected as an A-6 replacement, the F-18 Super Hornet. It was 25 percent bigger than an old F-18 Hornet, and kind of looked like one.
The U.S. Navy told the U.S. Congress that the F-18 Super Hornet was an upgrade of the old F-18 Hornet, in order to bypass testing phases for new weapons. The F-18 Super Hornet was no such thing, but the U.S. Congress fell for the subterfuge.
Later because the F-18 Super Hornet wasn't prototyped it developed a variety of problems and ended up with reduced performance that was already underwhelming.
In the mid 1990's, when McDonnell Douglass had its Joint Strike Fighter proposal shot down along with no credible airliner industry sales for the future, it sold out to Boeing, which inherited the now Boeing F-18 Super Hornet.
In the late 1990s, Boeing took over management of the RAAF F-111 fighter-bomber sustainment. They were also looking for their first foreign customer for the F-18 Super Hornet: knowing that Australia would have to replace its old F-18 Hornets and F-111s.
In 2000, by this time, short of skilled senior Defence engineer leadership, Australia was well into creating a plan to replace its aging fighter aircraft. Various U.S. and European aircraft makers were allowed to submit proposals in what was to be the most rigorous weapon acquisition and procurement process in Defence history known as Project Air 6000.
For those that wanted the F-111 gone, what to do?
2002 started with the announcement that, "two of the RAAF’s Force Element Groups - Strike Reconnaissance Group (F-111) and Tactical Fighter Group (F/A-18 Hornet, Hawk and PC-9/A) - have merged to form Air Combat Group."
Further:
"The evidence for this lies in the fact that there are no direct ‘one for one’ capability replacements for the current platforms."
This made it easier to 1.) admit that there was no replacement for the F-111 and get on with things; 2) rolling everything into one organisation made future planning easier; 3) including that the future would be one type of tactical strike fighter. Not two.
In 2002, under U.S. pressure, a gullible Prime Minister Howard shelved all contenders for the Project Air 6000. Australia would have the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter. This was an unheard of action. The F-35 was a paper airplane that was years from flying. It could not be properly evaluated for capability.
As time went on the F-35 had technical project management problems far above what was acceptable for design and development of weapon systems. Including, like the F-18 Super Hornet, it was never prototyped. For the readers out there, an X-35 concept demonstrator is not a prototype.
Four years after the Howard decision, in late 2006, Parliament listened to uniformed defence officials stating that the F-35 development problems and lateness could be taken care of by extending the life of the old F-18 Hornets. Parliament was also told the F-111 could fly many years if needed.
Not long after, the then Defence Minster Nelson allowed an audience with Boeing to show their F-18 Super Hornet in a slick sales brief. "Avoid capability gap".
Afterward, Nelson informed Defence and Howard's cabinet that he was urging an emergency procurement of 24 F-18F (two-seat) F-18 Super Hornets.
Uniformed Defence officials had never been consulted. Or, even done proper evaluation of the aircraft's capability.
At the time this was billed as a $6.6B procurement over 10 years of capability. It would replace the F-111. This was yet another fraud upon the taxpayer.
Today we have a small number of Super Hornets.Yet in their current form, they offer much more valued capability to a joint operational commander (including close air support) than the F-35 will ever see.
The RAAF also has a batch of of G model F-18 Super Hornets that are a radar jamming variant. The radar jammer pods on this aircraft, ALQ-99s, were in 2004, declared by the U.S. Navy as obsolete to emerging threats with no growth room.
And of course we are damned with a growing, but small number of F-35s with significant development problems. (scroll down the page to submission 19 which links to a PDF) One of the many is the gun is unable to hit anything reliably.
All the old F-18s are leaving fast.
What should a fighter aircraft do? (PDF)
Is this all doom and gloom? Yes and no.
We will be losing significant gross national product this year due to the virus.
Defence had capable procurement and acquisition people many years ago: with strong, world class engineering leadership skills.
If we focus on bringing that back, instead of believing everything that is presented in a U.S. PowerPoint briefing, then, we should have a bright Defence future. That includes living within means and not buying gold-plated systems unworthy for war.
If not, with federal debt approaching one trillion dollars, the pubic will get fed up. And then, our Defence road-map will give us an ADF the size and strength of, New Zealand.
Where are they now? Many people that took part in this fraud are retired. Nelson, who is responsible for dumping the Boeing F-18 Super Hornet upon us, is now president of Boeing Australia, New Zealand and South Pacific.
Photo: Charles Ponzi.
||======================||
Contact:
EP Actual on Twitter
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)